The Chain Signal

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A collection of 2 issues

The Risks You Choose and the Ones You Miss

The Middle East shock exposed two ways de-risking fails: the concentration you accept and normalize, and the correlations you never think to look for.

The Agreement Nobody Can Afford to Lose and Nobody Is Ready to Keep

USMCA's July 1 review compounds a legally unstable tariff architecture, the Hormuz commodity cascade, and $674 billion in U.S. export exposure.